Intelligence Assessments
Confidence: Moderate–High
Mali: Coercive Fragmentation and the Collapse of Transitional Legitimacy
JNIM expansion, MINUSMA withdrawal effects, and the governance vacuum driving northern fragmentation. Full QAP web report, 29 April 2026.
Mauritania: Governance Exclusion Loop and Institutional Legitimacy
A systems view of administrative fragmentation, exclusion feedback, and state capacity limits under economic constraint.
Chad–Sudan Border Crisis: Feedback Loop Analysis
Haiti Security Assessment: Transition Council and Gang Consolidation
Elite Capture and Political Instability: Q1 2026 Report
Ethiopia–Eritrea–Tigray: Post-Cessation Fragility Assessment
Kenya: K-Shaped Recovery, Inequality, and Governance Risk
Editorials & Commentary
Nigeria's Middle Belt: When the State Fails to Govern the Margins
Communal violence in the Middle Belt is not an ethnic conflict. It is a governance failure expressed as violence — and the distinction matters for policy.
Flashpoints Global Security Brief: April 19 2026
Cross-regional threat assessment covering escalation indicators, institutional rupture signals, and behavioral risk across active flashpoints.
Authoritarian AI: Governance, Surveillance, and Control Risk in 2026
How authoritarian states are integrating AI systems into social control architectures — and what the analytic implications are for open-source monitoring.
LLM Detection Lag and the Open Source Intelligence Problem
When synthetic content outpaces detection, the sourcing discipline of the analyst — not the tool — becomes the primary integrity check.
Situational Intelligence Briefs
DRC Monthly Brief — April 2026
M23 consolidation, FARDC posture, Goma humanitarian access, and 90-day horizon assessment.
Mali: On the Brink — Situational Intelligence Brief
Coercive fragmentation dynamics, JNIM territorial expansion, and transitional authority legitimacy collapse.
Sahel Security Report — 2 April 2026
Weekly escalation signals, actor posture shifts, and humanitarian corridor status across the Sahel arc.
Red Sea: Corporate Risk Assessment
Houthi interdiction risk, shipping corridor disruption modeling, and supply chain exposure for corporate stakeholders.
Niger: Humanitarian Access Compression — April 2026
Access corridor degradation, junta posture toward aid actors, and structural humanitarian risk escalation indicators.
Blog & Research Notes
QAP Research Note
The Architecture of Collapse: Feedback Loops, Tipping Points, and State Failure
State collapse is not a single event. It is a process — a cascade of failed feedback corrections, exhausted buffering mechanisms, and institutional substitution that precedes visible breakdown by months or years. This research note traces the analytic architecture of that process using QAP-CSRF™ modeling discipline applied to contemporary fragile state cases.
Partner Research
The Human Rupture: Conflict, Displacement, and Humanitarian System Stress
A partner research product developed in collaboration with IOSI Global examining the intersection of mass displacement, international protection systems, and state fragility across active conflict zones.
The Mauritanian Paradox: Institutional Sabotage, State Fragility, and Pathways to Legitimacy
Full PDF version of the Mauritania systems analysis — available for download and offline reference. Covers institutional sabotage mechanisms, fragility pathways, and legitimacy recovery conditions.
Sierra Leone: Illicit Economy Hub and the ECOWAS Terrorism Nexus
Assessment of Sierra Leone's role in regional illicit economy networks, the trafficking-terrorism interface, and ECOWAS institutional capacity to address the nexus.
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